Riftbound Booster Box EV Calculator
Is a Riftbound booster box worth more opened than it costs? The calculator values every card a pack can hold at its TCGplayer US market price, converted into your currency, averages each pull pool — Common to Showcase, plus the alt-art, Overnumbered, Signature and Ultimate chase prints — multiplies each average by how many of that pool a box yields, and sets the total against the box's price.
The market price is used rather than the cheapest listing, which is often a foreign-language copy. The box price starts at the cheapest in-stock booster box we track in your market, and the pack count and pull rates can all be changed to match the box you are buying. Box EV: rip or buy singles? covers what the number can and cannot tell you.
🔥 EV-positive at that price — opening beats buying singles on raw value (variance still applies).
Filled in with the cheapest in-stock Origins booster box we track: US$60.00 at TCGplayer → · compare boxes · type your own price to override it.
Where the value sits
chase prints are 34.5% of EVA pool's average divides by every card in it, so cards with no market price count as zero — which is honest for genuine bulk, but means a pool showing low coverage is understating its true contribution, never overstating it. Implied pack size: 12.10 cards.
Alt art · 30 in OGN
≈ 1 in 12 packs
Over-numbered · 13 in OGN
≈ 1 in 72 packs
Signature · 12 in OGN
≈ 1 in 720 packs
Every card is valued at its TCGplayer market price — the English Near-Mint fair-market figure TCGplayer publishes, not the cheapest listing (which is often a foreign-language copy). A ✦ marks a card priced from a foil-only listing — a different physical product from a base pull.
Base rarity and Showcase rates are estimates you control; Alt Art, Over-numbered and Signature use Riot's own published odds, and an Ultimate pulls at the Signature rate. Every rate stays editable either way. EV is an average across many boxes: the distribution is heavily skewed by the chase tiers, so most boxes come in under it. It also assumes every card could be sold at market price, and bulk commons effectively cannot be. Want a specific card? Buying the single is the surer play, and you can compare live box prices before you commit.
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What EV can't tell you
Chase prints are counted on purpose: a signature or over-numbered card is rare enough that it barely moves a per-pack average, but across a whole box it is a real share of what you paid for, and leaving it out understates every box. What the number can't tell you is whether your box is worth opening. EV is an average across many boxes, and the distribution is brutally skewed — most boxes land under the average and a few land far over it, because that is exactly what a 1-in-several-hundred chase card does to a mean. It also assumes you could sell everything at market price, and bulk commons are close to unsellable in practice. Treat a box as entertainment with a partial refund, not an investment. If you want specific cards for a deck, buying the singles is almost always cheaper and always certain — and either way, compare box prices before you buy.
If you would rather feel that distribution than read about it, open some virtual packs — same card pool, same pack structure, live prices on every pull, and no money. A dozen packs of mostly bulk makes the argument above far better than a paragraph does.